Donald Trump & Hillary Clinton – What Will Happen If
Today, more than 100 million people will watch the first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. For traders, this is one of the most important events this year. This is because the person who wins this debate could go ahead and win the general election. In this article, I will highlight four key reasons why I believe Donald Trump will win the general election. This matters because of the significance of United States in the world. America is the most powerful country on earth. If its economy collapses, the spillover effects will be felt anywhere. If Clinton wins, the market will continue to go up because investors perceive her to be a safe choice. Trump is viewed as a known unknown. This is because he is the first non-politician to become president. This article is however not an endorsement of Mr. Trump.
New World Order
The world is rapidly changing. People from around the world feel let down by the political establishment. They feel that the politicians have taken them for a ride. In Nigeria, they elected a president (Muhammadu Buhari) who very few experts expected to win. Then, in the United Kingdom, the Brexit vote happened and the leave side carried the day. In Germany, Angela Markel recently lost most of her parliamentary seats. The same is happening in France and in Spain. In the US election, chances are that most Americans will vote for Donald Trump as a way of protesting.
Another reason why Trump could win is that polls are changing in his favor. It is important to note that Trump began his campaign as a joke. Many people thought it was a publicity stunt. Then he started gaining momentum before defeating the talented 16 politicians. Then, after the Democratic National Convention, Clinton led him by more than 10 points and pundits wrote off Trump. He reorganized and started delivering key policy speeches. Today, the lead Clinton have already disappeared. Today, many polls show that Trump is leading which could go in Trump’s favor.
What many pundits overlook about Donald Trump is that he is a branding expert. Since the late 80s, Trump has been in the limelight for good and wrong reasons. He has played the media extremely well, and his apprentice show has become a huge success because of his expertise. In this campaign, Trump has managed to achieve a lot of success albeit spending very little. In fact, Hillary has spent more than $60 million compared to Trump’s $4 million. Donald Trump has compensated this by outsmarting the media like when he called a press conference to ‘end’ the birther controversy. His speech lasted less than 5 minutes while the rest of the time was dedicated to veterans who praised him.
The Hillary Problem
Another reason why Trump could win is about his opponent. Hillary Clinton is one of the most distrusted politicians in the United States. Many people believe that Clinton is not honest and that she is a liar. This is proven by the numerous lies she has said especially about her e-mails. In addition, Clinton has repeatedly made poor judgments especially by endorsing trade agreements such as Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), NAFTA, and by voting for the war in Iraq and Libya.
Why it Matters
In the Brexit vote, most people and polls believed that it was not possible for UK to leave the EU. On the day of the polls, a poll came out giving the remain camp a 10 point lead. When the results were announced, the leave campaign had won. Therefore, as a trader, it is very important to be open about a Donald Trump’s presidency. You should not be 100% confident that Clinton’s presidency is guaranteed. Doing this will help you avoid the market shocks that could happen if surprisingly Trump wins.