What is expected during week 22, 2019? Here something to focus on before the Bell rings
This week, investors will continue to focus on the ongoing confusion on trade. This is after Donald Trump started a new war-front with Mexico. In a series of tweets, the president said that the US will add tariffs on on all goods from Mexico to pressure the country to stop illegal immigrants from South America.
On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied,..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 30 maggio 2019
In addition, on Sunday, China announced its new measures to counter the US ban on Huawei. Other than these news, investors will pay attention to the following data in the economic calendar.
⇒ Something that probably you have read in our previous post.
On Friday, China Logistics released the latest reading of the Chinese PMI data. The number showed that the manufacturing activity in the country weakened to 49.4, which was lower than the consensus estimate of 49.9. A PMI reading of below 50 is seen as a sign of contraction. Today, Caixin will release the reading on PMI. Investors expect it to drop to 50.0 from the previous 50.2.
If the PMI misses, investors should watch out for the Australian, New Zealand, and the Chinese data. Australia is important because China takes more than a third of all its exports.
Later on, investors will receive the manufacturing PMI data from other countries like Germany, Spain, Italu, France, and United States. In Germany, the PMI is expected to remain at 44.3. In France, it is expected to remain at 50.6 while in the UK, it is expected to drop from 53.1 to 52/ In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 52.8 to 53.
On Tuesday, most of the Islamic countries will be closed for the Eid Al Fitr, so the key data will be the trade data from New Zealand. Investors expect that the terms of import prices declined by 2.5% while exports increased by 1.5%.
In Australia, the current account for the first quarter is expected to decline to A$2.5 billion while retail sales increased by 0.2%. On the same day, the RBA is expected to reduce interest rates to 1.25% from the previous 1.5%.
In the EY, the headline CPI is expected to reduce to 1.3% from the previous 1.7% while the core CPI is expected to drop by 1.0%. In South Africa, the GDP is expected to have contracted to -1.7% in the first quarter. Finally, Fed chair, Jerome Powell will have a speech.
On Wednesday, investors will receive the GDP numbers from Australia. The data is expected to show that the economy rose by 1.7% in the first quarter after gaining by 2.3% in the fourth quarter.
In Europe, Markit will release the services and composite PMI data while Eurostat will release the retail sales for April. Market will also release the PMI data for the other European countries.
The biggest news for the day will be the ADP employment numbers, which are expected to show that the economy created 185K jobs in May. ISM will also release the non-manufacturing PMI data. In addition, EIA will release the crude oil inventories numbers.
On Thursday, Australia will release its exports and imports data. This will be the first data after the US restarted the trade war with China. In Germany, investors will receive the factory orders for April while the EU will release the final reading of the first quarter GDP data.
On the same day, ECB and Indian central banks will release the interest rates decisions. The Indian central bank is expected to lower rates by 5.50% while the ECB is expected to give direction on when it will hike rates. The US will release the exports and import data.
On Friday, investors will receive the wages data from Japan and the unemployment rate from Switzerland. In Germany, they will receive the industrial production and trade data.
The biggest news of the day will be the official jobs number from the US and Canada. In the US, the economy is expected to have made 183K jobs in May while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%.
In Canada, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.7% while the ecionomy is expected to add 7.5K jobs.
More Helpful resources
Our Wiki about Shanghai Stock Exchange
Other info in Caixin Global
The economic calendar on Investing