#RingTheBell: The Key Data to Watch out for Next Week

RBA decision, US inflation, and everything else we’ll be watching

Here are the key data to watch in the economic calendar next week:

  • RBA rates decision

  • US CPI

  • German factory orders

  • Canada jobs data

Coronavirus was still the biggest story of the month as the number of infections rose. The most scary number came from Donald Trump, who warned that the disease would kill between 100k and 250k people. This is a big number, which could have serious implications for the economy.

Still, it was a week that we saw falling infection rates in Italy and Spain, the two epicentres of the disease. In this report, we will look at the key information to watch in the coming week.

Australia interest rates

The first information to watch will be from the Australian central bank, which will deliver its interest rates decision on Tuesday. The bank is expected to leave interest rates at the current multiyear low level of 0.25%.

In addition, the bank will talk about quantitative easing, a program that it has mentioned in the past few weeks. If it follows through, this will be the first time it has implemented this policy.

How the Central Bank Works

US inflation

Inflation is a very important number especially in times of a crisis. It is important because traders and policymakers want to see whether the crisis is having an impact on consumer prices.

The US government will release the CPI data on Friday. The expectation is that the CPI reduced to -0.1% in March after rising by 0.1% in February. On an annualized basis, the CPI is expected to have risen by 2.2%, which is lower than the previous gain of 2.3%.

Meanwhile, the core CPI is expected to have risen by 2.4%, which is slightly lower than the previous 2.4%.

In addition to the inflation data, we will receive other important information from the US like the Michigan University consumer sentiment data, producer price changes, and the JOLTS job openings data.

European data

Europe has been among the most affected regions in the world. Thousands of people have been infected while thousands have died. In addition, many cities continue to remain in shutdown while a number of companies have gone out of business. Millions of workers’ jobs are at risk.

Therefore, the data expected next week will paint a picture of what we can expect:

  • Monday: we will receive the factory orders data from German and construction PMI data from the UK.
  • Tuesday: we will get the German industrial production data and retail sales from Italy.
  • Wednesday: we will get the unemployment data from Switzerland and inflation data from Norway.
  • Thursday: we will get the manufacturing production data from the UK, and exports and imports data from Germany.

The market will be closed on Friday as the world marks Good Friday.

Other data

There will be other data to watch in the coming week. The Canadian jobs numbers are essentially important because of how the oil market has weakened in the past few weeks.

As a major oil exporter, Canada is particularly exposed to these prices. The numbers are expected to show that the country’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6% while the participation rate dropped to 65.4%.

On Wednesday, we will receive the key machinery orders data from Japan and the housing starts data from Canada.

External Useful Resources

  • RBA implements quantitative easing in Australia for the first time – Savings.com
  • US crude dips below $20 as lockdowns hit demand – CNBC

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