What To Expect From the Uncertainties of Brexit – Introduction
In June 2016, the UK citizens went to a referendum whose goal was to decide the fate of the country’s membership to the European Union. In what happened to be the biggest upset in a referendum, the majority of the voters decided to leave the EU. This was unexpected because of the role the country had on the EU as the second-biggest economy after Germany. It had benefited significantly by being a member of the union with most global companies establishing their European headquarters in the country.
After the Brexit vote, the country started negotiating its divorce agreement with the union. The agreement was important because of continuity reasons. This means that even with the Brexit done, the relations between the two parties was important for Europe’s sake. The two parties had divergent goals. The UK wanted a divorce agreement that was good for the country. If it succeeded, other EU countries would follow suit. On the other hand, the EU had its own agenda. Its agenda was to make the divorce process so difficult to prevent other countries from following in the footsteps of the UK.
After months of negotiations, the UK and the EU reached a draft deal last week. This was a major milestone for the negotiations. However, as things stands, the deal will not be likely to go through. A day after the cabinet passed the deal, the minister responsible for Brexit resigned. In his letter, he said that he would not support a deal in which the UK was at the mercies of the European Union. This is because in the deal, the EU has a right to veto UK’ exit. In addition, the deal did not have a clear direction on North Ireland issue.
With his resignation, the divorce agreement is now at risk. This is because most conservatives in parliament don’t believe in the deal. This is especially with the statement that he said about his reasons for resignations. In addition, the liberal party led by Jeremy Corbyn has indicated that it won’t support the deal.
Among conservatives, there are many people who believe that a no-Brexit deal is better than a deal. The argument is that without a deal, the country will be just fine in terms of trade. They argue that the country will be at a better position to attract international companies. At the same time, they argue that they will be at a good position to compete with the European Union because of the World Trade Organization’s rules that prohibit tariff and non-tariff barriers. They also argue that without a deal, they will be unchained from the tough regulations that exist in the European Union.
Those who support a Brexit deal or even a new referendum argue that it is in the UK’s best interests to remain connected with the European. They argue that exiting without a deal will cause many companies in the UK to shift their base from London to other cities like Brussels and Frankfurt.
Each side has valid points and as at now, no one knows what will happen because a divorce from the EU has never happened. What is certain is that a divorce from the EU without a deal will likely lead to a short-term collapse of the pound.